In line with the forward indicators, national dwelling commencements rose in the September quarter on the back of previously low interest rates and government stimulus measures, according to Master Builders Australia.
Mr Peter Jones, Master Builders’ Chief Economist said, “After almost five years of chronic underbuilding the residential sector finally looks set for an upturn and though well overdue, the latest figures are encouraging.”
“We can look forward to a bounceback in housing commencements in 2009-10, offsetting the substantial decline that occurred in financial year 2008-09 in the wake of the global financial crisis.”
“Beyond that, there are questions over the sustainability of the upturn.”
He said, “Tight lending requirements enforced by the banks are affecting investor-driven unit and apartment builders, as is the looming fall back associated with the end of the First Home Owner ‘boost’ scheme and speculation about higher interest rates.”
“Master Builders believes the Reserve Bank needs to keep interest rates low to ensure recovery in the interest-rate-sensitive residential building sector becomes entrenched.”
“Australia needs a long and strong housing upturn if it is to overcome the massive shortfall in dwellings that has developed.”
“Unless governments work to address supply-constraining factors such as developer charges, the level of residential building is likely to fall well short of the annual 200,000 completions required to solve the problem and meet demand.”
• The total number of dwelling units commenced in the September quarter 2009, seasonally adjusted, rose by 9.4 per cent to 34,082, to be down by 6.0 per cent on the September quarter 2008.
• The number of private new houses commenced rose by 8.1 per cent to 24,570, up 3.4 per cent from the corresponding quarter a year ago.
• Commencements of other dwellings, the category that includes apartments, rose by 9.0 per cent in the September quarter to be down 32.5 per cent through the year.